In the complex context of the global economyJackpotcitynodepositbonusThe latest report from the World Bank Group provides an important perspective on commodity markets and inflation trends. This article will make an in-depth analysis of the World Bank's forecast and explore its potential impact on the global economy and inflation.
I. World Bank's commodity market forecast
1. The weakening of deflation and the persistence of inflation
The World Bank points out that with the weakening of major deflationary forces, high inflation is likely to persist for some time. This view reflects the current challenges facing the global economy, especially when volatility in commodity prices has a direct impact on inflation.
2. The shift in commodity price trends
The World Bank report notes that the decline in global commodity prices over the past two years has stopped, especially as the escalation of conflicts in the Middle East has led to a reversal of the downward trend in inflation. Between mid-2022 and mid-2023, commodity prices fell by about 40 per cent, driving down global inflation. However, from the second half of 2023, the trend began to reverse.
Second, the "fragile moment" of the global economy
1. Energy price shock and economic impact
Indermit Gill, chief economist of the World Bank, stressed that energy price shocks could plunge the world economy into a "fragile moment". This view highlights the threat of geopolitical tensions to global energy supplies and their possible broader economic consequences.
2. Interest rate expectation and inflation rate forecast
Gill expects interest rates to remain higher than expected this year and next because of persistent inflation. In addition, commodity prices are expected to fall 3 per cent in 2024 and 4 per cent in 2025, but this slow decline will do little to reduce inflation.
III. Threat of geopolitical tensions
1. Conflict in the Middle East and Global Energy supply
Conflicts between Israel and Iran, as well as conflicts in Ukraine and Russia, pose a threat to global energy supplies and could lead to more inflationary pressures. The World Bank has warned that major disruptions could push oil prices above $100 a barrel, significantly raising global inflation.
2. Global economic growth and differentiation of commodity prices
Ayhan Kose, deputy chief economist of the World Bank, points out that significant differences are emerging between global economic growth and commodity prices. Despite relatively weak global economic growth, commodity prices are expected to remain higher in 2024-25 than they were before the COVID-19 pandemic.
IV. The embodiment of American economic data
1. Current situation of economic growth and inflation
The US economic data reflect dual concerns about slowing economic growth and high inflation. Us gross domestic product (GDP) growth was lower than expected, while the core PCE price index rose, indicating that inflationary pressures remain.
The World Bank report provides us with a macro perspective on the global economy, commodity markets and inflation trends. Despite the uncertainties, it is clear that geopolitical tensions, commodity price volatility and persistent inflation will continue to pose challenges to the global economy. Central banks and policy makers need to pay close attention to these developments and take appropriate measures to promote stable economic growth and control inflation.