bigwin888slot| Close: U.S. stocks closed higher on Friday and non-agricultural data boosted Fed interest rate cut expectations

editor 发布于 2024-05-04 阅读(3)

  北京时间4日凌晨bigwin888slot,美股周五收高,三大股指本周均录得涨幅。美国4月非农就业数据远逊预期,失业率上升、薪酬增长放缓,使市场对美联储今年降息的预期重新升温。

  道指涨450bigwin888slot.02点,涨幅为1bigwin888slot.18%,报38675.68点;纳指涨315.37点,涨幅为1.99%,报16156.33点;标普500指数涨63.59点,涨幅为1.26%,报5127.79点。

  本周道指上涨1.14%,纳指上涨1.43%,标普500指数上涨0.55%,三大股指均为连续第二周录得涨幅。

  美国国债收益率周五走低,10年期国债收益率下跌7.1个基点,降至4.50%,早间一度下跌至4.453%。

  周五美股投资者迎来了备受关注的4月非农就业数据。该数据全面疲软,使市场恢复对美联储2024年两次降息25个基点的预期。

  哈里斯金融集团常务合伙人Jamie Cox表示bigwin888slot:“非农数据全面疲软,总体上对市场有利。工资增长疲软将有助于消除对通胀大规模反弹的担忧。”

  美国劳工统计局周五公布的最新数据显示,美国雇主在4月份缩减了招聘规模,失业率意外上升,工资增长放缓,这表明在经历了年初的强劲增长后,劳动力市场正在降温。

  美国4月季调后非农就业人口录得增长17.5万人,增幅为2023年10月来新低,不及预期的24.3万人和前值30.3万人。美国4月失业率意外升至3.9%,市场预期维持在3.8%不变。

  4月份的平均时薪环比增长0.2%,低于预期和前值0.3%。

bigwin888slot| Close: U.S. stocks closed higher on Friday and non-agricultural data boosted Fed interest rate cut expectations

  就过往数据的修正来看,2月份非农新增就业人数从27万人下修至23.6万人;3月份非农新增就业人数从30.3万人上修至31.5万人。经过这些修正后,2月和3月新增就业人数合计较修正前减少2.2万人。

  非农数据公布后,美国利率期货目前暗示2024年美联储将两次降息25个基点,非农前预期为一次。交易员将美联储首次降息时间预期从11月提前至9月。

  分析师Chris Anstey称这是一份全面疲软的报告。他表示,非农报告中的工资增长低于预期,这可能是最大的问题。还要注意的是,对前两个月的修正导致就业人数累计少了2.2万人。

  分析师Joseph Richter认为,薪酬数据可能是这份非农报告中最值得关注的数据点。过去三个月,时薪平均增速仅为0.23%,而前三个月为0.4%。工资增长放缓可能是未来几个季度非住房服务通胀数据好转的动力。

  嘉信理财总经理Richard Flynn表示:“最新的非农就业报告表明,劳动力市场的需求正在放缓。近几个月来,很明显,美联储乐于在降息周期缓慢行动,不希望经济出现意想不到的疲软,而我们今天看到的报告可能会导致这种做法的转变。劳动力市场的崩溃可能会促使美联储从漫步转为冲刺。”

  加拿大帝国商业银行分析师Ali Jaffery称,市场不要得意忘形。美联储政策制定者希望看到的不仅仅是一个月的良好数据,才会对就业市场引发的通胀压力感到更放心。“总体而言,劳动力市场仍然强劲,他们需要看到更多的证据表明经济放缓,或者就业人数意外大幅下降,在经历了如此强劲的就业增长之后,他们才会担心自己的就业任务。”最终,美联储将按兵不动,直到他们对通胀有了明确的认识。

  斯巴达资本证券公司首席市场经济学家Peter Cardillo表示:“这份报告恰到好处,正是美联储希望看到的。我们没有看到工资回升,仍在创造就业机会,经济表现良好,然而,报告的关键在于工资水平,工资水平比市场预期的要低一些。这对美联储来说是一份好报告,对市场来说也是一份好报告。如果继续沿着这条路走下去,那么这可能会改变降息的时机,可能意味着今年或许会有两次降息,而不是一次。”

  在本周三美联储会议结束时,美联储主席鲍威尔似乎排除了加息作为央行下一步行动的可能性,但这并不一定意味着交易员应该开始期待该机构在不久的将来降息。

  但美联储理事鲍曼周五表示,即使美联储维持利率在当前水平不变,通胀也应会继续下降,同时她还重申,如果反通胀进展逐渐停滞或逆转,她就会支持加息。

  鲍曼是自美联储主席鲍威尔周四发表讲话以来首位发声的美联储官员,她在一场会议上表示:“我的基本预期仍是通胀将在政策利率保持稳定的情况下进一步下降,但我仍认为一些通胀上行风险会影响我的预期。虽然目前的货币政策立场似乎处于限制性水平,但如果即将公布的数据显示通胀进展停滞或逆转,我仍愿意在未来的会议上提高联邦基金利率。”

  芝加哥联储行长古尔斯比(Austan Goolsbee)表示,像周五这样的就业报告会让他感到经济没有过热。古尔斯比拒绝透露今年是否可能降息,称他仍在等待更多数据以确认通胀正向美联储2%的目标迈进。

  古尔斯比周五在斯坦福大学的一次会议期间表示:“今年年初我们确实在通胀方面遇到问题。”他接着说,官员们需要后退一步来确定这是否是经济重新加速的迹象。

  美联储本周将基准利率维持在逾20年高点不变,在这一决定之后,鲍威尔表示,今年迄今为止的数据并没有给委员会“更大的信心”,即通胀率将在可持续的基础上朝着2%的方向发展。

Sonu Varghese, global macro strategist at Carson Group, said: "although it is unlikely to cut interest rates in the short term because of high inflation, the threshold for rate hikes is indeed high. The continued strength of the labour market has also reduced the urgency of interest rate cuts, but the current potential interest rate cap and a strong economy are good for the stock market. "

U. S. stock earnings are still in the spotlight. Apple shares soared after the company reported better-than-expected revenue and profit and announced it would buy back $110 billion of shares.

Shares of biotech company Amgen rose as the company reported better-than-expected earnings and revenue.

Shares of Cloudflare, an Internet security and Internet company, tumbled after the company reported weak full-year earnings guidance.

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Apple reported after-hours on Thursday that revenue and net profit in the second quarter were better than expected, and sales in Greater China easily exceeded expectations.

Apple also announced its largest-ever share buyback program in the United States, saying its board of directors approved an additional $110 billion. The announcement of the plan also marks Apple's own record for the highest amount of stock buybacks in the United States. According to data compiled by market research firm Birinyi Associates dating back to 1999, the tech giant authorized $100 billion in buybacks in 2018.

Microsoft recently released a new transparency report outlining measures developed and deployed in 2023 to responsibly release generative products.

In the responsible AI Transparency report, Microsoft describes its achievements in safely deploying AI products, creating a total of 30 responsible AI tools, expanding responsible AI teams, and requiring teams that develop generative AI applications to measure and map risks throughout the development cycle. It is also expanding its red team (penetration testing team) work, including internal red teams that deliberately try to bypass the security features in its artificial intelligence model, as well as red team applications to allow third-party testing before the new model is released.

Google had laid off at least 200 employees from its "core" units before it recently reported results, and plans to move some jobs to India and Mexico.

According to Google's website, the "core" unit is responsible for building the technical foundation of the company's flagship products and protecting users' information security. The core team includes information technology, Python development team, technical infrastructure, security infrastructure, application platform, core developers, and various engineering roles.

A four-year investigation by the Indian Competition Commission (CCI) into Amazon and Walmart's Flipkart found that the two e-commerce giants violated antitrust laws, according to people familiar with the matter.

In Intel's latest earnings call, the company showed off its upcoming products and made it clear that it would make every effort to promote artificial intelligence on the next major CPU platform. CEO Pat Gelsinger confirmed that the upcoming 18A process Panther Lake CPU is progressing well and is expected to be launched in mid-2025.

Gelsinger made some bold announcements, saying that Panther Lake's artificial intelligence capabilities will double that of the Arrow Lake chip launched later this year. If Intel can achieve such generation-by-generation progress, it may witness some amazing artificial intelligence processing power.

In other markets, WTI futures for June delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange closed down 84 cents, or 1.06%, at $78.11 a barrel, the lowest closing price since March 13. WTI futures are down more than 6.84% this week, the biggest weekly decline in three months. The futures traded at $86.97 a barrel at one point in intraday trading on April 12.

Brent crude for July delivery on InterContinental Exchange fell 71 cents, or 0.85%, to close at $82.96 a barrel. Brent crude oil futures are down more than 7% this week.